000 AXNT20 KNHC 261137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.9W...OR ABOUT 530 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 26/0900 UTC. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ARE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR BERMUDA WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N69W TO 33N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE ARE LOCATED FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 10-15KT. BASED ON LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED IN A LOCATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 26/00Z ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BASED ON LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED IN A LOCATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 26/00Z ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N15W...TO 10N20W 13N26W AND 13N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N29W TO 13N38W AND 11N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W. OTHER CONVECTION IS RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO MEXICO NEAR 23N 100W. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH IS KEEPING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN BASIN CONVECTION FREE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 28N 94W. THE TROUGHING IS ESSENTIALLY A WESTERN EXTENSION OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG AND WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE LENGTH OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT...WITH THE HIGHER WINDS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 22N96W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMDJ AND KVBS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 70W. IT IS PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM 68W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N65W TO 16N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 17N85W. THIS TROUGH IS AN EXTENSION OF A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 100NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE LENGTH OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.43 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC EASTWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 70 AND 73W. ...HISPANIOLA... SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED WELL WEST OF HISPANIOLA AND IS NOW LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL CUBA. MAINLY DEBRIS CLOUD AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM CRISTOBAL IS AFFECTING THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ISOLATED MODERATE REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AFFECTS OF CRISTOBAL WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY BETWEEN THE PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N65W TO 37N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE EASTERN CONUS. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM BERMUDA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.86 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N44W...TO 33N35W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W FROM 11N TO 20N...PRODUCING E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ASL/MT