000 AXNT20 KNHC 260021 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 AMENDED FOR UPDATED CRISTOBAL INFORMATION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 71.9W AT 26/0020 UTC OR ABOUT 575 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING E AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29N67W TO 18N76W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N27W TO 20N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN FAIRLY ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 20N42W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MODEL FIELDS INDICATING A MAXIMUM FROM 09N- 14N BETWEEN 37W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N- 14N BETWEEN 39W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N51W TO 17N53W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 13N20W TO 14N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 12N38W TO 08N43W TO 05N52W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W N-NE TO A FOCUS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 28N90W. WHILE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET...CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W- 94W...INCLUDING INLAND LOUISIANA...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SW ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE GULF CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W W-NW TO 29N91W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF N OF 23N BETWEEN 80W- 88W. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING IS LARGELY AN WESTWARD EXTENSION OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT DOES MATERIALIZE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO INLAND NE MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NEAR 25N84W THAT IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NE FLOW ALOFT TO 84W THEN SE FLOW ALOFT PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 84W ALOFT REMAINS DRY... BETWEEN 70W-84W SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE S-SW PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL NEAR 21N75W SW TO JAMAICA TO 13N82W. AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH BY THURSDAY. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM GUADELOUPE TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-65W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA. FINALLY...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 09N TO 78W THEN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO NEAR 11N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...HISPANIOLA... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO JAMAICA TO 13N82W. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...IS PROVIDING HISPANIOLA WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING. AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL VERY GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES... INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE CRISTOBAL THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE STORM CENTER ITSELF...THE STORM IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE GENERALLY W OF 60W REACHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO 30N69W TO 29N75W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N75W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA. WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT OF CRISTOBAL...THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHING FROM JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA. THE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS A 300 NM ZONE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 56W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN