000 AXNT20 KNHC 251808 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED 24.6N 72.7W AT 25/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 105 NM E-NE OF SAN SALVADOR AND ABOUT 650 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED...4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N26W TO 12N26W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N37W TO 12N38W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE CONVECTION NEAR BY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 10N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME DENSE AEROSOLS AS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NOAA AEROSOLS COMPONENT GRAPHIC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THAT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N27W TO A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N36W THEN RESUMES W OF THE THAT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N42W ALONG 7N54W TO 9N59W. A SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 38W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF AND SE CONUS WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIDGING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST S OF TAMPA BAY ALONG 28N88W TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR GRAND ISLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS W ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-92W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 26N91W TO 29N87W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS ENHANCING THE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED THE FRONT ABOVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR SE GULF NEAR 23N83W AND EXTENDS S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES S TO A POSITION FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY TUE. THE REMNANT TROUGH WILL THEN PERSIST IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG 9N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO OVER PANAMA E OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF SAINT LUCIA INCLUDING BARBADOS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INTO T.S. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY RESULTING IN CONTINUED INSTABILITY OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED. THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY OFFICE...ONAMET...CONTINUES THE WEATHER ALERTS FOR FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. PLEASE SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT WWW.ONAMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE T.S. CRISTOBAL JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-76W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W ALONG 29N71W TO 29N74W THEN WEAKENS ALONG 28N77W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH TO TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF T.S. CRISTOBAL WITHIN 120/150 NM 23N71W 28N67W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM 14N59W TO 10N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF SAINT LUCIA AND 14N E OF THE TROUGH TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO TO MOVE N-NE THROUGH WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS W ATLC BEHIND T.S. CRISTOBAL ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW