000 AXNT20 KNHC 241802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED 24.2N 72.9W AT 24/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 125 NM E-NE OF LONG ISLAND OR ABOUT 160 NM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED...4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 70W-74W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N22W TO 12N22W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N30W TO 12N30W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N45W TO 10N45W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N21W 10N33W TO 6N39W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N45W 10N50W TO 10N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 32W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 87W WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N92W. THE UPPER WINDS ARE DRIVING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS W ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA E-NE TO NEAR FOR MYERS FLORIDA. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 83W-93W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT. TROUGHING WILL BUILD FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS STARTING TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 64W-87W WITH INVERTED UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WEST. SURFACE FLOW INTO T.S. CRISTOBAL IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND FAR E CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-82W WITH REMNANT SHOWERS S OF 11N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 76W-78W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N E OF 86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... SURFACE FLOW INTO T.S. CRISTOBAL IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS CRISTOBAL MOVES SLOWLY N-NW AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ONAMET HAS ISSUED WEATHER ALERTS FOR FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. PLEASE SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT WWW.ONAMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS T.S. CRISTOBAL JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-81W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 23N58W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO 9N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 54W- 61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 55W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS MOVING N-NW THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW