000 AXNT20 KNHC 191051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 22N42W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N51W TO 21N55W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 14N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 51W-54W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 57W-59W. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT 25 KT. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 88W-94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 84W- 86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N16W TO 15N20W TO 12N45W TO 09N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 22W-36W...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 33W- 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF WATERS. ONE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N BETWEEN 84W-86W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 76W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 18N BETWEEN 65W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 27N W OF 65W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES FOR TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF 79W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THERE IS ALSO DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF 28N E OF 79W...WHICH IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N44W SW TO 28N45W. TO THE EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N29W AND EXTENDS NE TO 38N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN/RIVERA