000 AXNT20 KNHC 181741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N31W TO 12N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N- 21N E OF 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 32W-38W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N43W TO 11N45W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 44W-48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N80W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 78W-82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N16W TO A 1010 NM LOW AT 12N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 12N28W TO 11N42W TO 8N54W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 8N54W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE 12N22W LOW FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 22W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W MOSTLY DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 94W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 22N98W ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SE GULF...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PERSIST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 12N W OF 80W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS SHOWERS TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 28N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 29N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 75W-78W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 13N35W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVES E OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA