000 AXNT20 KNHC 180545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 19N40W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N41W. IN ADDITION...WEAK AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN 37W-47W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N- 14N BETWEEN 41W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 22N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT. BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 71W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 14N21W TO 12N30W TO 11N41W TO 10N49W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 09N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 15W-24W... AND FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 28W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 92W-97W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 75W-80W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND FAR EASTERN PANAMA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N79W. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 13N W OF 80W...AND ACTIVE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-79W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 76W. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 28N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 55W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY TWO 1020 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N62W AND 27N71W THAT ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 23N46W THEN TO 21N51W AS A SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N42W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 37W-50W. FINALLY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN