000 AXNT20 KNHC 172340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N25W TO 11N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS AT A MINIMUM AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES SHOW A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 05N-20N E OF 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N40W MOVING W AT 10 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...HOWEVER SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N74W TO 10N75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LIMITED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH SOME ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE AXIS AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 23N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N20W TO 11N27W TO 13N33W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N140W TO 09N50W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 08N59W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS E OF 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W EXTENDS AN E TO W RIDGE TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY/SHIP DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 0-2 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE- S WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N98W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE SE OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NE SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND E-SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N W OF 91W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST E OF FLORIDA IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 27N8W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW-W ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA AND THE E CENTRAL GULF UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DISCUSSED ABOVE...A FAIRLY BROAD PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMAICA TO THE NW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST WHILE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUES OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ENHANCEMENT AND SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SW-W OVER JAMAICA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PAIR OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE IN THE ATLC WITH ONE LOCATED NEAR 27N58W AND THE OTHER NEAR 27N72W. THESE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE NEAR 27N68W IN 24 HOURS. AN E TO W RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 27N TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 28N47W EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE SW TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 29N77W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N33W TO 23N46W WITH A REMNANT TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 22N51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE AXIS. 1014 MB LOW PRES IS TO THE W NEAR 30N42W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N44W. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MOROCCO AT 24N15W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW-W TO 14N45W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES NEAR 17N51W. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH FROM 13N TO 20N E OF 55W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC EXCEPT 1-3 FT NEAR AND ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH A SET OF NE-E SWELL BUILDING SEAS TO 5-8 FT FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE TRADE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY