000 AXNT20 KNHC 162348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N21W TO 12N23W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS FURTHER E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N20W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N- 21N E OF 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 23W-28W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N36W TO 12N37W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 37W-39W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N64W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W...AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 65W-71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 15N20W TO 12N23W TO 12N33W TO 12N37W TO 7N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N47W AND CONTINUES TO 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 43W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W IS PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 90W-93W. EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA E OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SE CUBA...AND JAMAICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND N GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA N OF 7N BETWEEN 71W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N82W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 70W-80W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION...AND CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N57W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 66W-75W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 15N44W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 37W-39W. DRY AIR SAL IS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 43W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA