000 AXNT20 KNHC 152349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N18W TO 14N19W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 14N19W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N- 21N E OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 19W-22W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N32W TO 11N33W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 15N. THE SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 16N SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 11N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 28W-34W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N57W TO 8N59W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 56W-63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N16W TO 12N23W TO 11N33W TO 8N40W TO 9N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 9N44W AND CONTINUES TO 12N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 26N IS PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO. EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA... W CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER FLORIDA N OF 25N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 80W...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER W FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AND THE E GULF FROM 25N-29N E OF 86W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE HIGH TO FORM OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N85W. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FORM OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W...AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE N BAHAMAS. THE NET RESULT WILL PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF...AND CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER E CUBA E OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 82W-87W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA MOSTLY DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA N OF 8N BETWEEN 61W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF VENEZUELA AND E OF 80W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION...AND CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS SAT. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 68W-75W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 13N32W VERY CLOSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N33W. DRY AIR SAL IS S OF 27N TO THE TROPICAL WAVES E OF 53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MRF/ERA