000 AXNT20 KNHC 151059 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N29W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N31W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW... AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 17N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N92W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 87W...AND INLAND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N31W...TO 12N55W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TO DO WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF THE TEXAS COAST IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS INLAND AREAS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM GEORGIA AND ALABAMA TO TEXAS...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 25N ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEN INLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 21N ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...TO 23N90W...25N85W AND 29N85W. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 83W...FROM 27N SOUTHWARD BEYOND CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N92W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 87W...AND INLAND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KXIH...AND KVBS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING STATIONS... KGVX...KVOA...AND K1B7. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... IN TEXAS...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED NEAR AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IN LOUISIANA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN LAKE CHARLES. IN FLORIDA...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN PENSACOLA. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IN MARIANNA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF BROOKSVILLE. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SARASOTA. RAINSHOWERS WERE REPORTED RECENTLY IN PARTS OF FORT MYERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N IN HONDURAS NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO 15N77W...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 78W EASTWARD...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...BETWEEN 81W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W. ...HISPANIOLA... CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA... SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA...FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND THE U.S.A. COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N NORTHWARD FROM 66W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 29W FROM 32N TO 23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N38W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N62W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT