000 AXNT20 KNHC 142325 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N17W TO 12N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N- 19N E OF 21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 14W-21W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO 11N29W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 15N. THE SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 15N SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 11N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-38W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N48W TO 10N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 48W-55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N89W TO 10N93W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 86W-92W TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 11N29W TO 9N40W TO 10N54W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 10N54W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N90W TO CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 28N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE FRONT. EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 25N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 80W. SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 25N94W ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N86W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO THE W ATLANTIC. FINALLY EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER E CUBA E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA N OF 8N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF VENEZUELA AND E OF 78W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N61W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 66W-74W. OF NOTE...DRY AIR SAL IS S OF 27N TO THE TROPICAL WAVES E OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MRF/ERA