000 AXNT20 KNHC 141111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N43W 15N45W 10N47W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN ONE CLUSTER ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N83W...AND IN BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 18N16W...TO 10N26W 9N30W 11N40W AND 11N48W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. IT IS NOT DIGGING SOUTHWARD ANY MORE...AND THE FRONT THAT IT WAS SUPPORTING HAS BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA THAT...24 HOURS AGO...WAS RUNNING FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS GULF COASTS INTO MEXICO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 20N...NOW IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND IN MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N68W... BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N/25N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...STATION KBQX IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG...KGVX...KCRH...KATP...AND KVOA. ICAO STATION KGRY IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... IN TEXAS...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN FALFURRIAS. IN LOUISIANA...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN LAKE CHARLES... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IN FLORIDA...A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IN PENSACOLA...A LOW CLOUD CEILING IN CRESTVIEW...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN APALACHICOLA...A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG IN TALLAHASSEE...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN ONE CLUSTER ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N83W...AND IN BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE 17N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 75W EASTWARD...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA... ACCOMPANIED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...STILL WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 28N62W...AND FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE 22N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N75W 31N77W 28N79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.72 FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N42W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N57W...TO 25N68W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N/25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT