000 AXNT20 KNHC 140605 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N24W 15N25W 10N26W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 34W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 10N47W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N FROM 78W WESTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N24W 10N30W 12N41W AND 8N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N48W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG OVER LAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. IT IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ANY MORE...AND THE FRONT THAT IT WAS SUPPORTING HAS BECOME STATIONARY...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS GULF COASTS INTO MEXICO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 20N...16 TO 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND IN MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...EVEN WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N FROM 78W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE 17N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND 76W. WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W IN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MOVED FROM NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WESTWARD ACROSS HAITI... AND THEN THEY DISSIPATED AFTER EXITING HAITI FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA...ACCOMPANIED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N54W 29N56W TROUGH...AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.72 FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N61W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT