000 AXNT20 KNHC 120604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N32W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA. IT HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 660 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...SOUTHWARD BEYOND GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM GUATEMALA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W...CURVING TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR ALONG THE 32W/33W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 9N36W 9N40W AND 8N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N42W TO 7N47W AND TO 9N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ENCOMPASSES THE AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND 92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE PART OF THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N70W... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KCRH. STATION KVBS IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTHWARD. CLEARING SKIES COVER LOUISIANA...AFTER EARLIER RAIN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA. IT HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 660 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CENTER. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.09 FOR GUADELOUPE...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N FROM 80W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ALREADY. CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. NEARBY RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA. EVERYTHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG 32N/33N FROM 60W WESTWARD BEYOND COASTAL GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 26N60W 26N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.08 FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 32N42W 20N47W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W 26N58W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT