000 AXNT20 KNHC 120000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS N FROM 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N31W TO 19N31W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT AT LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON SSMI TPW IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS S OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAX WINDS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA NEAR 16N30W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 31W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N69W TO 20N68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SE 700 MB FLOW ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MAX LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-70W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS FROM EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH MAX MOISTURE INDICATED ON SSMI TPW IMAGERY FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 84W- 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ERUPTING MAINLY OVER LAND FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 12N31W TO 08N42W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 07N45W TO 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 33W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SE GULF. THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM 20N94W TO 25N92W IS A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 92W-97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 28N89W IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W.THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ALONG 26N/27N THROUGH WED CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W ALONG WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 82W-91W. MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-85W...INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH CLOUDS AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-69W. DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 70W-82W BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. AS THE INFLUENCE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK FRONT ALONG 32N W OF 56W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-80W..AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 51W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W ALONG 26N TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WITHIN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL