000 AXNT20 KNHC 111720 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N26W TO 20N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W-37W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA NEAR 16N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N67W TO 20N67W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SE FLOW AT 700 MB ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 64W-69W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 60W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N89W TO 22N86W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 83W-88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 81W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 12N26W TO 09N33W TO 09N38W TO 08N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 08N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 13W-21W...AND FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SE GULF...IT ALLOWS FOR 10-15 KT E-SE MOIST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW GULF. TO THE SOUTH...THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N94W TO 24N92W IS ALSO PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N88W PROVIDING AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FOR A LARGE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-91W. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ALONG 26N/27N THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W WITH SATELLITE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-88W. THE WAVE...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W. FARTHER SOUTH...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-85W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST... ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH INCREASED MOISTURE... CLOUDINESS...AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N- 15N BETWEEN 60W-68W. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 70W-77W BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. AS THE INFLUENCE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N57W TO 32N65W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 32N74W THEN A WARM FRONT INTO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-80W..AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 51W-70W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W ALONG 26N TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WITHIN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN