000 AXNT20 KNHC 111102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 22N TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N24W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 13W AND 27W...INCLUDING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N69W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE/ACROSS THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ...TO 16N67W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N67W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N80W...TO A 13N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR AS 79W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 22N94W...ACROSS AND BEYOND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N24W...TO 10N30W AND 10N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N47W TO 12N58W...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 13W AND 27W...INCLUDING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24W/25W TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N95W...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N106W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 26N58W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVAF...AND AT KVBS DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... CRESTVIEW FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG/HAZE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN SARASOTA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N69W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE/ACROSS THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ...TO 16N67W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N67W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N80W...TO A 13N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR AS 79W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 73W EASTWARD...IN AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WESTWARD WITH TIME...DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.05 FOR GUADELOUPE...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF ANTIGUA/BARBUDA...SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 77W IN COLOMBIA AND IN ITS COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE GULF OF URABA TO COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE ONTO THE ISLAND. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TOWARD CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME...SPREADING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL START ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA/CUBA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THIS AREA IS ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF HISPANIOLA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG 32N/33N FROM 60W WESTWARD BEYOND COASTAL GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 26N60W 26N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 2.01 FOR BERMUDA... FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W 25N41W 18N45W 10N47W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N33W...TO 30N42W 26N58W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT