000 AXNT20 KNHC 101154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CUBA-TO-JAMAICA...TO 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 92W/93W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...PASSING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 93W AND 100W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND ACROSS EL SALVADOR... INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE SHORES OF EASTERN HONDURAS...AND WEAKENING/DISSIPATING IN BELIZE AND HONDURAS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL...TO 11N30W AND 9N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N43W TO 7N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N103W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL...ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 25N60W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBQX. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KHQI. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUBA-TO-JAMAICA...TO 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND ACROSS EL SALVADOR... INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE SHORES OF EASTERN HONDURAS...AND WEAKENING/DISSIPATING IN BELIZE AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N70W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W IN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF URABA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. ...HISPANIOLA... A CUBA-TO-JAMAICA...TO 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 32N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N68W BEYOND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N FROM 50W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.12 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N70W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N36W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N37W...TO 30N41W 25N60W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 18N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT