000 AXNT20 KNHC 100603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IS INLAND/ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. ITS MOVEMENT IS WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 21N74W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N73W 11N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THAT AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED INTACT...BUT IT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE SLIGHTLY...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 16N20W 11N30W AND 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N46W TO 8N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N103W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD AND FROM 90W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 90W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 26N62W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMDJ AND KDLP. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KHQI. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 21N74W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N73W 11N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THAT AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED INTACT...BUT IT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE SLIGHTLY...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N70W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 21N74W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N73W 11N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 32N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N72W BEYOND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N56W 29N60W 28N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N FROM 50W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.12 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N70W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N36W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N38W...TO 29N48W 26N62W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 18N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT