000 AXNT20 KNHC 092355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N51W TO 8N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS IS RESULTING IN NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N72W ACROSS HAITI INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 13N74W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 69W-79W INCLUDING ALL OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE MONA PASSAGE. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WILL RE-EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TONIGHT. WAVE IS JUST E OF AN UPPER INVERTED TROUGH ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN BETWEEN 87W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N25W TO 10N39W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS EVENING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N92W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 90W-94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 26N86W TO 23N89W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 77W N OF 16N ACROSS JAMAICA AND E CUBA...WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA S OF 16N HAS NEAR ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 10N W OF 82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA W OF 75W AND FROM 13N-15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE. CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN BY MON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FROM E TO W AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE ISLAND BY SUN. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUN AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN THIS EVENING MOVING AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA RATON TO DAYTONA BEACH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF THE FLORIDA BORDER. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 26N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO 28N74W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 74W- 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 56W-72W SUPPORTING A FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N62W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 58W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N38W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 26N61W TO A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N72W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG 25N/27N THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC N OF 30N E OF 70W SUN. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ON MON WHILE THE COLD SECTOR WEAKENS AS IT MOVES E OF 65W ON MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW