000 AXNT20 KNHC 091805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 650 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N48W TO 9N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW THE PRESENCE OF DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION N OF 12N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT JUST WEST OF THE ITCZ FROM 9N- 11N...COINCIDING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A ZONE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N70W TO 11N70W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE N OF 15N WHICH ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 69W- 73W...INCLUDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND E PACIFIC WATERS. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N88W TO 10N90W AND IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE AS WELL AS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...INCLUDING THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 15N16W TO 11N29W TO 10N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N40W AND CONTINUES TO 10N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-14N E OF 21W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND OF 5-10 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MODERATE MOISTURE INTO THE BASIN FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE SW N ATLC WHICH IS FUELING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 22N E OF 93W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED INLAND NE MEXICO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN N OF 22N W OF 94W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PAC WATERS AND SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN MORNING WHICH WILL BRING RAINSHOWERS TO THE S-SW GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF ON WED MORNING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N W OF 81W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 79W BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AND BANKING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 69W-74W ...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. THE WAVE ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN COINCIDING WITH A PATCH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 63W-68W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN OVERALL DEEP LAYER DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS TRADES OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE THE NW AND SW BASIN. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS OVER THE REMAINDER WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CEASE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N58W TO 28N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 77W-80W BEING ENHANCED BY A ZONE OF MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N38W DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 22N. FOR TROPICAL WAVES...SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR