000 AXNT20 KNHC 091104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE PENINSULA OF PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES FROM 10N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL...TO 11N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N29W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...TO 10N38W 9N46W AND 7N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 43W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N102W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMDJ. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KHQI. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA...AND IN PARTS OF THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE PENINSULA OF PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES FROM 10N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 16N87W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN EL SALVADOR SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.60 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA TO 9N80W...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W REACHING EASTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE PENINSULA OF PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES FROM 10N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS... AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC SYSTEM THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA. NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW...WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 32N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N68W BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 28N80W 30N60W BEYOND 32N45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO A 26N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N44W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO. IT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 38N19W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N39W...TO 29N46W 22N58W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 20N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT