000 AXNT20 KNHC 082340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N43W TO 11N43W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS IS RESULTING IN NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO 13N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO 19N BETWEEN 64W TO 68W INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 10N84W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N23W TO 11N34W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N48W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N-10N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N86W. WEAK UPPER FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE BEING AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE FAR W GULF AND GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND S TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 27N W OF 95W. W WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO 28N90W. THE UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 89W-95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND THE SW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 60W- 64W N OF 14N AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN ON SAT. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON. THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND SAT INTO SUN WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND LATER TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT ARE CONFINED TO INLAND AREA. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 22N76W COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 73W-78W AND IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N64W. A NARROW UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N55W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N- 32N BETWEEN 56W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW