000 AXNT20 KNHC 081803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N40W TO 10N41W MOVING W AT 20 KT. METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW THE PRESENCE OF DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N63W TO 11N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E OF 67W...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N83W TO INLAND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. A MID-UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS WAVE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 78W- 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN W OF 75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 18N16W TO 11N24W TO 10N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N36W AND CONTINUES TO 8N45W 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N E OF 20W...FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 24W-32W AND FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 52W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE BASIN AND SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W WHICH IS PROVIDING VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MODERATE MOISTURE INTO THE BASIN FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE SW N ATLC WHICH IS FUELING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 23N E OF 90W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED INLAND NE MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE NW BASIN FROM 22N-27N W OF 91W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN MORNING WHICH WILL BRING RAINSHOWERS TO THE S-SW GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W-NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE AS WELL AS SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 79W-85W. MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 13N. A SECOND TROPICAL ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 12N E OF 67W...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN OVERALL DEEP LAYER DRY ENVIRONMENT. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS OF 10 KT DOMINATE IN THE NW BASIN. HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER CURRENTLY DOMINATE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ON THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINSHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 70W...TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST AND N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORT PRE-FRONTAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 56W-65W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N38W DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 20N. FOR TROPICAL WAVES...SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR