000 AXNT20 KNHC 081023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N39W TO 10N40W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. FURTHER N...THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 38W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 9N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 60W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 7N82W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A LARGE MOISTURE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO 12N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N26W TO 8N40W TO 8N50W TO 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 53W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF HAS 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. S FLORIDA HAS NOCTURNAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 26N DUE TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST NW OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 95W-98W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO DRIFT NW WITH MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA...FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MORE SHOWERS ARE OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 56W-64W. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N39W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ANOTHER LARGE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 54W-62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA