000 AXNT20 KNHC 072354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N35W TO 10N34W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS IS RESULTING IN NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO 10N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N57W TO 11N62W INCLUDING BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 10N78W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N23W TO 8N36W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 8N48W TO 11N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N-9N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N90W AND AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER E MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 24N97W TO 20N95W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 93W-97W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER MEXICO AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN EARLY SAT AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF CUBA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER LOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N AND COUPLED WITH A 1011 MB LOW S OF PANAMA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND THEN THE YUCATAN BY SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SUN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF HAITI AND ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW N OF CUBA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY SAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATE SUN INTO MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N67W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 28N73W ACROSS ABACO ISLAND TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-67W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE MOVING INTO THE ATLC WATERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF WEST PALM BEACH. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 22N75W COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-79W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA AND HAITI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-79W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N56W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 54W-57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW