000 AXNT20 KNHC 071024 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N31W TO 9N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AROUND THE WAVE BUT SOME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT. THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO 9N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 53W-61W. LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER S BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N75W TO 10N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS FROM N HONDURAS AT 16N88W TO TO THE E PACIFIC AT 8N88W MOVING W AT 15- 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE OVER W HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 10N25W TO 8N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N35W TO 10N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF ALABAMA NEAR 27N87W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W TO S MEXICO AT 17N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 96W-98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF...AND AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 74W-79W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION...ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST S OF HAITI DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ON THU AND FRI. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO 28N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N54W TO 25N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 52W- 56W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS...ANOTHER LARGE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA