000 AXNT20 KNHC 070000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE LAST ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS ISSUED AT 06/1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N27W TO 11N28W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AROUND THE WAVE BUT SOME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT. THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 9N53W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-57W WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-12N. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 23N69W TO 12N70W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA ALONG AND JUST W OF WAVE AXIS. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS MOVING IN PHASE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N71W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA ALONG WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 8N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N35W TO 10N53W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NW OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W MOVING NW AND A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 21N91W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO MOST OF THE BASIN WITH SMALL AREA OF MUCH DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR EVIDENT IN FAR NW GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 93W. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHS SUPPORT TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE BASIN...ONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DISCUSSED IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE FROM DRY MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE REGION WITH ASCAT DATA SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED WITH ITS NORTHERN EXTENT REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THU. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND IS ENHANCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THU. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY / SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 25N80W AND ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE BROAD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IN PHASE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N71W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A TUTT LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N53W IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N52W TO 25N54W AND ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N32W DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH CONVERGENCE ZONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL