000 AXNT20 KNHC 060604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR 37.5N 68.1W AT 06/0300 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 350 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT 470 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX IN NOVA SCOTIA. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 37N TO 40N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALONG 19N26W 14N28W 10N29W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N60W 13N61W 10N62W... PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N66W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND EVENTUALLY TO VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN SOUTHERN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N78W IN CUBA...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA TO 16N79W...TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU...TO 10N24W 9N30W AND 10N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N36W TO 11N39W 8N50W AND 6N58W ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N75W...TO 30N77W...TO FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST NEAR 26N82W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N74W 27N81W 23N86W. WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KGVX...KHQI IS REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG...AND KATP. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N60W 13N61W 10N62W... PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N66W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND EVENTUALLY TO VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN SOUTHERN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N78W IN CUBA...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA TO 16N79W...TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 85W IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN 82W AND THE COASTS FROM MEXICO TO BELIZE TO HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 75W...WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 75W WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS...EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N66W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND EVENTUALLY TO VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN SOUTHERN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINSHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 16N60W 10N62W SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED E OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 73W-79W. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS N OF 31N AND E-SE OF THE LOW CENTER. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE GULF STREAM FROM 25N-28N W OF 77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS ALONG 33N IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N58W AND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N32W...PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N49W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM FROM THE CENTER. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TO DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W TO 27N80W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 29N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT