000 AXNT20 KNHC 052353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36.2N 70.3W AT 05/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 360 NM W OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING N- NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N23W TO 11N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST AREA OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N63W TO 16N65W TO 11N65W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST AREA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120-240 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N75W TO 15N77W TO 10N78W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120-180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N17W TO 10N21W TO 7N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO 6N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N96W MOVING W AND A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE S.E. CONUS FROM 40N80W TO 31N87W...AND A DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM 31N87W TO 21N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD SE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS WITH DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR EVIDENT NW OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF AND N OF CUBA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 81W-86W. EXPECT SIMILAR TYPE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ERUPTING NEAR S FLORIDA AND IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE TROUGH E OF BARBADOS FROM 15N58W TO 10N59W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N- 17N BETWEEN 59W-63W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 83W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION... WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN RIDGE PREVAILS OVER REMAINDER OF THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCERS NEXT 24 HOURS AS THEY MOVE W. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W-78W MOVES FARTHER W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED E OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 73W-79W. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS N OF 31N AND E-SE OF THE LOW CENTER. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE GULF STREAM FROM 25N-28N W OF 77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS ALONG 33N IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N58W AND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N32W...PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N49W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM FROM THE CENTER. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TO DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL