000 AXNT20 KNHC 051123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... BERTHA WEAKENED AND NOW IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 33.4N 72.9W AT 05/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 415 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...OR 15 DEGREES...19 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 34N72W AND ALONG 72W FROM 31N TO 32N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ ALSO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS INFORMATION RELATED TO THE HURRICANE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 10N TO 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY STAY INTACT AND REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 39W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 38W AND 73W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N23W AND 9N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N30W TO 7N40W AND 4N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 10N20W 10N25W 8N30W 5N33W 5N40W 7N54W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N80W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 88W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD TO FLORIDA AND 30N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 75W AND 85W INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA TO MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ALABAMA-TO-WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N91W 22N93W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 85W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO...INCLUDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KXIH...KVAF...KATP...KIKT...KMDJ. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM 65W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THAT IS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO VENEZUELA ALONG 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN GUADELOUPE. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 76.5W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA ALSO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM PUERTO RICO...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO EASTERN CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE BERTHA IS ABOUT 415 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 34N72W AND ALONG 72W FROM 31N TO 32N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N50W 20N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N TO 34N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 34N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 26N26W TO 20N30W AND TO 10N34W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN THE LINE 30N14W 20N23W 16N26W 10N34W AND 40W...AND FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 38N10W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N23W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N37W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N57W...TO 23N71W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 13.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT