000 AXNT20 KNHC 050559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA IS NEAR 31.3N 73.1W AT 05/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 425 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...OR 15 DEGREES...17 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ ALSO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS INFORMATION RELATED TO THE HURRICANE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N23W 9N22W...FROM THE EASTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 12N TO 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N22W AND 10N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N28W TO 9N33W 7N42W AND 8N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 88W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA TO MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N87W TO 27N90W TO 23N94W. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ALABAMA-TO-WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N91W 22N93W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. NO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 80W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IN A THIN LINE FROM EXTREME EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...TO 12N82W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN GUADELOUPE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA ALSO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM PUERTO RICO...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO EASTERN CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE BERTHA IS ABOUT 425 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N51W 22N52W AND 21N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W...AND FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 26N26W TO 20N30W AND TO 10N34W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN THE LINE 30N14W 20N23W 16N26W 10N34W AND 40W...AND FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 38N14W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N23W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N39W...TO 29N45W...28N57W...AND 25N70W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N58W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT