000 AXNT20 KNHC 041724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA IS NEAR 27.6N 73.6W AT 04/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 200 NM TO THE ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 350 DEGREES...AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG MAINLY OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 140 NM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 16N21W TO 09N20W... MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A SMALL AREA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 54W/55W FROM 10N- 22N...MOVING W 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY IDENTIFIED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N66W ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 10N66W...MOVING W 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THERE IS MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICAN COAST AT 14N17W TO 10N25W TO 07N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N35W TO 05N55W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 07.5N27.5W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SE LOUISIANA TO 27N93W. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THEN DIPS SW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 25N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS S OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING NW 10-15 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 81W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 81W S OF 14N TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER CUBA W OF 81.5W. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS HISPANIOLA EXCEPT FOR A FEW WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 68W. A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 34N49W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 23N59W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N50W IN 48 HOURS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS S OF 13N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 25W INTO S AMERICA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 22N E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 35N26W THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N39W TO NEAR 28N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE S CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED N OF 25N W OF 77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA E COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB