000 AXNT20 KNHC 041145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 6.1N 73.6W AT 04/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 190 NM TO THE EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 350 DEGREES...14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N20W 10N18W... MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 38W AND 62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDINESS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... TO 14N66W AND 10N66W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 72W EASTWARD. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 13N16W TO 9N28W AND 10N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N33W TO 12N42W AND 11N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N22W 6N30W 4N34W 6N44W 4N50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...CURVING TO 25N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W...OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 87W...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE GEORGIA COAST...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST...FROM THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ENCOMPASSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHWARD FROM THERE IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO BORDER WITH GUATEMALA...FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO CUBA AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15.5N TO THE WEST OF 68W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO CUBA AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF MONDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS... MOVING NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 33N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N56W AND TO 24N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 34N47W 32N47W 28N51W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N19W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N28W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N4W TO 20N20W...AND WITHIN 800 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N20W 10N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT