000 AXNT20 KNHC 040604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 24.9N 73.2W AT 04/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 165 NM TO THE EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 335 DEGREES...15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N63W 15N64W 10N65W... MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 70W EASTWARD. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N28W AND 11N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N38W TO 12N42W AND 11N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N17W 8N26W 4N33W 6N42W 3N48W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W...INTO A CENTRAL FLORIDA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO WESTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 80W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND 83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA...TO A 1012 SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N97W 26N90W...AND FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ENCOMPASSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHWARD FROM THERE IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N80W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG HAS DEVELOPED FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 70W EASTWARD...AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO CUBA AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W AND TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 70W EASTWARD...AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO CUBA AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W AND TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF MONDAY. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 32N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N57W AND TO 25N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N19W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N24W AND 20N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT