000 AXNT20 KNHC 040005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 73.2W AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 84 NM SE OF SAN SALVADOR MOVING NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 69W-74W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE STORM LOCATION. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N16W TO 9N17W AND IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 12N. SOUTH OF 12N...A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 19W-22W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 19W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 750 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N47W TO 10N48W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. PATCHES OF DRY SAHARAN AIR ARE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N59W TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS MOVING ACROSS DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE REPORTING DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS WHILE ST KITS AND DOMINICA ARE REPORTING SOME SHOWERS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 7N26W TO 10N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N38W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N48W TO 6N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 25W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BASE EXTENDING TO NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N90W TO 21N94W. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO ENHANCING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N92W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N93W TO 24N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N88W TO 14N91W...WHICH IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GREAT PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AS WELL AS NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N80W TO 27N80W 24N83W TO 22N84W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS WELL AS S OF 25N E OF 87W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE BASIN BY WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 77W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE ZONE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE PASSAGE AND NW HAITI. THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE ALSO SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL JAMAICA. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWER OVER JAMAICA AND SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTION S OF 13N. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CUBA...THUS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE THE WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE PASSAGE AND NW HAITI AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 76W. PART OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHICH WILL BE MOVING NE TO SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE AREA DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR