000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 72.6W AT 03/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 130 NM SE OF SAN SALVADOR MOVING NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N45W TO 21N46W MOVING W AT 25-30 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W- 52W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 14N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 18N59W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING THAT CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE ZONAL. THE WAVE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 9N23W TO 10N34W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 12N46W TO 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-41W...AND FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO ALABAMA. BROAD TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE SE CONUS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SW INTO GULF WATERS TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRIGGERING ISOLATED CONVECTION EXTENDS SW FROM 26N86W TO 25N91W TO 21N95W. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA MERGE WITH THE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ALREADY IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVING NW AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TWO PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE REGION ARE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N88W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N81W. THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-87W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W INCLUDING NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT E OF 75W AND 5-15 KT W OF 75W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE MOVING NORTH OF THE ISLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY. THEREAFTER...THE USUAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST BY MID-WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA TRACKING NW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 68W-71W. MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT N-NW TOWARD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SE CONUS. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 78W-82W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-31N W OF 75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH MONDAY. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N52W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE UPPER LOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL