000 AXNT20 KNHC 031200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 71.8W AT 03/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 40 NM W OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING NW AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 67W-72W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N43W TO 21N43W MOVING W AT 25-30 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W- 52W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 14N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 18N57W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING THAT CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE ZONAL. THE WAVE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N24W TO 12N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 10N46W TO 05N52. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 24W-32W...AND FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 34W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWARD COVERING MUCH OF THE SE CONUS. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SW INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 27N95W THEN WEST TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 27N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 90W-94W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 86W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA MERGE WITH THE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ALREADY IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN SEA... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS IT TRACKS NW TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-72W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE TWO PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N87W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N79W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-86W. TO THE SOUTH...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-86W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FINALLY...TRADES NOT DISRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF BERTHA ARE FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 75W AND 5 TO 15 KT W OF 75W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND E OF 72W AS THE STORM TRACKS TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE USUAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST BY MID-WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA TRACKING NW CURRENTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 66W-72W. FARTHER NW...MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIFT N-NW TOWARD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 76W-83W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-31N W OF 75W. THIS ENERGY AND SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW AND MERGE WITH SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N52W THAT SUPPORTS A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 29N-37N BETWEEN 45W-56W...LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN