000 AXNT20 KNHC 030557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 70.5W AT 03/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 25 NM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 80 NM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING NW AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N38W TO 20N37W MOVING W AT 25-30 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 33W- 48W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 15N41W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N53W TO 20N53W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 10N26W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N35W TO 10N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 06N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 13W-17W...AND FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 24W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWARD COVERING MUCH OF THE SE CONUS. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 30N92W THEN S-SW TO 27N93W THEN WEST TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION TO 22N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 90W-95W. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N E OF 84W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC MERGE WITH THE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ALREADY IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN SEA... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS IT TRACKS NW TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE TWO PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING ARE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N87W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 77W-84W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-85W. TO THE SOUTHWEST...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 72W- 86W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WESTERN PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FINALLY...TRADES NOT DISRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF BERTHA ARE FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 74W AND 5 TO 15 KT W OF 74W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-74W. THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND E OF 71W AS THE STORM TRACKS TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE USUAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST BY MID-WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA TRACKING NW CURRENTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 66W-71W. FARTHER NW...MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIFT N-NW TOWARD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 28N77W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THIS ENERGY AND SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW AND MERGE WITH SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N53W THAT SUPPORTS A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. 29N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW TO 28N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-36N BETWEEN 46W- 56W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN