000 AXNT20 KNHC 021145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 65.5W AT 02/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM SW OF SAINT CROIX AND ABOUT 105 NM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 63W-65W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 61W-66W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 21N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-37W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 16N32W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N41W TO 19N47W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS INDICATING MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING SE OF THE WAVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N37W. THE WAVE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 38W-41W TO THE W-NW OF THE LOW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N37W TO 04N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N44W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 19W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING ALONG 30N. THE WESTERN IMPULSE IS ANALYZED AS 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SW LOUISIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 28N97W AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 91W-97W. FARTHER EAST...THE OTHER IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW GENERALLY S-SW ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA TO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 27N83W. THE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO THE SW FROM 25N84W TO 23N91W. MOST OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 81W-88W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS SW TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW GULF BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND TRACK W-NW TOWARDS THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N65W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N76W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 67W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE CONDITIONS. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W THAT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION BETWEEN 80W-85W. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NE OF A LINE FROM SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND 19N84W. OTHERWISE...TRADES NOT DISRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF BERTHA ARE FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W- 77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO THE NW OF THE ISLAND DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...BY MID-DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE REGION AND SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. WHILE BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM BERTHA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 26N-30N W OF 75W. TO THE NORTH...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OFFSHORE N OF 30N W OF 78W. IN ADDITION...TO THE SE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N723 CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-NW AND IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 71W-78W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING HIGHER PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST..A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N53W THAT SUPPORTS A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW TO 28N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 50W- 56W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N41W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO 33N30W THEN SOUTHEAST TO 24N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN