000 AXNT20 KNHC 010553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 56.3W AT 01/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 NM ESE OF SAINT LUCIA MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N20W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 21W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE EAST OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N34N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 33W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND LARGELY SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N34W TO 04N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO 04N46W TO 09N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-SE FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 25N TO 90W. MOST EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 83W. ANOTHER MID- LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND SE TEXAS NEAR 30N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS N OF 28N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N88W. THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N77W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE... HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. FINALLY... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE ISLAND REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 32N76W THEN NE TO BEYOND 37N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 76W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W THAT IS SUPPORTING A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N46W THEN W-NW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-46W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 49W-59W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN