000
AXNT20 KNHC 271826
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N36W TO 10N37W AND IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH 
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N68W TO 10N68W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. 
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO 
14N92W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. LIKE THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVES 
THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 
12N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 09N25W TO 08N44W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N44W TO 
08N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-12N 
BETWEEN 28W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 
KT. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH 
THE STRONGEST FLOW AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS 
OVER THE NW GULF WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 50 KT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS 
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W. SCATTERED EASTWARD 
MOVING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N 
OF 15N W OF 72W. WINDS ALOFT BECOME WESTERLY N OF 16N E OF 70W 
DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N73.5W TO 14.5N70W. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

SCATTERED CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...8 TO 10 
DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS LOCATED NEAR 23N63W. IT IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SLOWLY N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A WEAKER AND SMALLER 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE NE 
NEAR 29N48W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE N 
OF 20N E OF 55W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS 
THE ATLANTIC FROM 08N TO 25N E OF 40W. AT THE SURFACE A 
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N26W TO 22N48W 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED UP TO 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF IT. A 
1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 33N53W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 
THE HIGH TO 27N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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CAB