000 AXNT20 KNHC 271039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS REACHING CENTRAL ATLC WATERS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N34W TO 10N37W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N67W TO 10N67W MOVING W AT 20 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S OF 16N. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N89W TO 13N91W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AS WELL AS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N15W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N28W TO 9N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N39W TO 9N50W TO 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E OF 22W...FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 26W-35W AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 38W- 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ALOFT...AN INVERTED TROUGH COVERS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 26N WHICH IS SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS GENERATE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N E OF 88W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W THAT IS PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT. ELSEWHERE...AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SW GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH ALONG MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 75W- 84W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 68W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORTS TRADES OF 20-30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-82W AND GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND S OF JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NE OF FREEPORT. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N62W ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 61W- 65W. OVER THE E ATLC...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SW WITH A BASE NEAR 25N. THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N30W SW TO 25N40W TO 21N49W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N56W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N24W. THESE TWO FACTORS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...SEE ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR