000 AXNT20 KNHC 270600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS REACHING CENTRAL ATLC WATERS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N33W TO 10N36W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N65W TO 10N66W MOVING W AT 20 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S OF 15N. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 11N88W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS MOSTLY DRY IN THE LOW TO UPPER LEVELS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-21N W OF 81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 8N29W TO 9N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 9N50W TO 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E OF 20W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W-33W AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 37W- 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ALOFT...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BASIN. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W...INCLUDING THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TAMPA TO BOCA GRANDE FLORIDA AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE...AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SW GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH ALONG MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS IS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE CONTINUATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORTS TRADES OF 20-30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-82W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OF HISPANIOLA SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF FREEPORT. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N62W ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 61W-65W. OVER THE E ATLC...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SW WITH A BASE NEAR 25N. THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N30W SW TO 23N42W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N21W. THESE TWO FACTORS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...SEE ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR