000 AXNT20 KNHC 262328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WELL W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N30W TO 10N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 15N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N63W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 17N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 62W- 66W...AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 61W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N82W TO 10N73W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE INCLUDES REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W TO 9N30W TO 9N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA...THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AND ANOTHER IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AIR MASS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N54W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY S OF 18N. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. AIR MASS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA N OF FORT PIERCE AND W OF 80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N30W TO 23N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 61W-64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP DOWN TO 30N OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA