000 AXNT20 KNHC 210551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 26W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N38W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N38W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N66W TO 9N68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N24W TO 11N38W TO 9N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF 90W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15- 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO CUBA AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA