000 AXNT20 KNHC 202357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N22W TO 10N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS BEING CLOSELY ENGULFED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 23W- 30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N36W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 33W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N63W TO 9N65W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM W OF ITS AXIS S OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 14N W OF 82W COINCIDING WITH A BULGE OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS CUBA BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N26W TO 10N34W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 10N38W TO 6N44W TO 4N52W. CONVECTION NOTED IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN ALABAMA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N85W TO 30N89W 29N93W TO INLAND TEXAS NEAR 29N97W. THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS COVERS THE GULF...THUS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N AND EASTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 95W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND START DISSIPATING BY WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N W OF 81W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. TWO ELONGATED UPPER- LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER S OF THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND. OTHERWISE... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...HISPANIOLA... TWO ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER S OF THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-80W OR NORTHERN/CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N60W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 36NN49W TO 30N56W TO 26N60W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W WHICH ALONG DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS