000 AXNT20 KNHC 201017 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N33W TO 8N37W MOVING W 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-40W. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO 5N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N72W TO 10N73W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 11N20W TO 9N33W TO 6N44W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N44W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 86W-92W. 10-15 KT SE TO S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA... FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 26N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA