000 AXNT20 KNHC 191734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N29W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 09N31W TO 07N31W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH NO CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 580 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 08N52W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART IN PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N66W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N52W TO 08N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH NE FLORIDA TO 26N90W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF IN TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 28N95.5W TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 95.5W. MINIMAL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 75W. A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 12N76W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OVER THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. ...HISPANIOLA... INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COVERS MOST OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N56W. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 28N62W IN 48 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 20N68W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MUCH WEAKER AND SMALLER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 27N28W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. MODERATE EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB